Ters Eğri
Politika Faizi > 10Y Tahvil
The canonical Turkish condition. TCMB short-term policy anchors above long-dated bond yields, reflecting market expectation of future rate cuts and disinflation. Carry-seekers favor short duration. Credit risk compression in medium-term bonds.
Normal Eğri
10Y Tahvil > Politika Faizi
Market prices in rising rates or fiscal risk premium at the long end. Long-duration bonds underperform as investors demand higher term premium. Typical in early tightening cycles or periods of elevated sovereign risk perception.
Compressed / Flat
Negatif Reel Faiz
When CPI YoY exceeds the policy rate, real returns on TL instruments are negative. Historical pattern during pre-orthodoxy era (2021–2022). Equity and FX-hedged assets typically outperform nominal bonds in this environment.